Will Scotland finally end their All Blacks hoodoo?

Rugby scene
New Zealand introduced several adjustments to the side that defeated Ireland

Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks

Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital When: Saturday, 8 November Time: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Rugby action
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in 2022

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.

Raymond Harding
Raymond Harding

A tech enthusiast and lifestyle blogger with a passion for exploring innovative trends and sharing practical advice.